The price of HBM4 may double in 2027. The three major original manufacturers have locked up production capacity and small and medium-sized manufacturers are facing shortages.

Kuai Technology News on July 11th: Recently, DigiTimes’ latest report quoted industry insiders as saying that due to the dual factors of the explosive demand for AI computing power and the structural shortage of production capacity, the price of high-bandwidth memory HBM is expected to double in 2027. Industry news shows that the unit price of HBM4 will be approximately US$2/Gb in the second half of 2026, and may skyrocket to US$4 to US$5 or even higher by 2027. According to reports, the core of the price increase is due to two major production reasons: on the one hand, the HBM4 process is extremely difficult to manufacture, with a production cycle of 4 to 6 months, and the initial yield rate is low; on the other hand, the wafer area required to produce HBM is three times that of ordinary DDR5 memory, and the capacity release space of the existing production line has been greatly compressed. Not only that, the tight supply situation will continue to worsen. At present, the three core HBM manufacturers, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, have signed long-term orders of 3 to 5 years with leading AI companies, giving priority to locking in capabilities. DigiTimes predicts that in 2027, nearly half of the world's DRAM production capacity will be taken over by large customers, making it difficult for small and medium-sized manufacturers to obtain supply shares. At the same time, sources in the supply chain revealed that there will continue to be a fundamental supply gap in AI hardware in 2027. By the end of 2026, chip manufacturers will have full bargaining power, and consumer electronics companies that have not signed long-term supply agreements in advance may encounter a severe memory supply crisis.