Huang Renxun got the permission in vain! H200 shipments to China are zero: 46% of Chinese companies’ computing power budgets are flocking to domestic chips

Fast Technology News on August 8. According to reports, senior officials of the U.S. Department of Commerce recently confirmed at a congressional hearing that although export licenses to China have been issued, the number of NVIDIA H200 chips actually shipped to China is "very small, and can be said to be insignificant." This is in sharp contrast to Huang Renxun's high-profile announcement in March this year that he had "obtained H200 purchase orders from many Chinese customers and is restarting production." The license was obtained, but the goods could not get through at all. On the one hand, Washington's licenses have been unable to be converted into actual supplies, and on the other hand, domestic policies are accelerating the promotion of domestic substitution. A survey report released by relevant industry research institutions in July showed that after surveying 60 Chinese business executives, respondents expected to invest 46% of their AI accelerator budget in local products in the next 12 months, higher than the current 30%. Real money is flowing into the pockets of domestic chip manufacturers. Cambrian released its 2026 semi-annual report on August 7. The operating income in the first half of the year was 5.996 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108.13%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.311 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.61%. At the same time, the semi-annual performance forecast disclosed by Moore Thread in July showed that the expected revenue is 1.65 billion to 1.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 135% to 149%. Tianshu Zhixin is predicted by securities firms that its revenue will reach 3.04 billion yuan in 2026, a year-on-year increase of approximately 194%. The push at the policy level cannot be ignored either. It is reported that China plans to invest approximately 2 trillion yuan in the next five years to build a national data center, requiring at least 80% of core technologies to use products from local suppliers. Morgan Stanley analyst Charlie Chan estimates that China’s AI chip self-sufficiency rate will rise from 42% in 2025 to 70% in 2029. By the time H200 can actually arrive on a large scale, the market structure may have changed.